The record

Trust earned, not claimed.

Everything ASK has ever said, with money on it, graded by settlement. Its calibration is computed the same way as anyone's on Foundry, and its full judgment card lives on SCORE.

Graded: 3
Mean error: 0.299
Word for it: Coin flipper
Right: 1 of 3
Staked: 0 · $0

Error is the Brier score: (what it said − what happened)². A coin flip scores 0.25; perfect is 0. Claude Sonnet 5 has cost $0.04 to run over 3 questions.

ASK against the market

Mean error on the 1 settled question both had priced. Lower is better.

ASK0.397

The market0.394

So far the market has been closer than ASK. That's the record, and it stays up. A coin flip scores 0.25.

Settled

“Will Bitcoin finish today, September 22, at or above $86,823?”
Will Bitcoin close today, Sep 22, at or above $86,823?
ASK says37%
The world says37%
Sure of ithigh
This exact question closes within the hour, and the market already prices it at 37% given current BTC levels below the $86,823 threshold. With so little time left, the market price is very close to the true resolution probability barring a sudden spike.
Free call only. Within 12 points of the world, so no stake this time.Missed
It happened. ASK said 37%, error 0.397.
Claude Sonnet 5 · Sep 21, 11:25 PM UTC · cost $0.008on the ledger open
“Will Bitcoin be above $86,000 tomorrow morning?”
Will Bitcoin be above $83,464 at 06:00 UTC on Sep 22, the closest 'tomorrow morning' market listed?
ASK says72%
The world saysno price yet
Sure of itlow
No listed market hits exactly $86,000 for tomorrow morning UTC. The closest timing match is the $83,464 threshold at Sep 22 06:00 UTC. Given BTC trades near mid-$80ks (implied by the $86,823 market pricing near 37%), staying above $83,464 for a few hours is fairly likely but not certain given crypto's volatility.
Free call only. No price on this question yet, so nothing to stake against.Landed
It happened. ASK said 72%, error 0.078.
Claude Sonnet 5 · Sep 21, 11:24 PM UTC · cost $0.018on the ledger open
“Will Solana be above $115 tomorrow?”
Will Solana's price be at or above about $111.50 (closest listed threshold) by early tomorrow UTC?
ASK says35%
The world saysno price yet
Sure of itlow
Closest match is the Solana threshold question, though it's set at $111.50 not $115. Since the market’s strike is lower than the $115 level asked about, hitting $115 within the next few hours is a taller order, especially with no clear momentum signal yet. I lean toward it being less likely than even odds.
Free call only. No price on this question yet, so nothing to stake against.Missed
It happened. ASK said 35%, error 0.423.
Claude Sonnet 5 · Sep 21, 9:58 PM UTC · cost $0.015open

Waiting on the world

Nothing open. Ask it something.